Falling by the Wayside

With the Mumbai attacks and its prolonged aftermath dominating newspaper space, scant attention has been paid to other relatively major developments in the Indian political sphere. VP Singh died, Vasundhara Raje's attempt at a replication of the Modi style personality politics in her state of Rajasthan was shown to be a failure, and Sheila Dikshit swept into an unprecedented third term in office. However what really fell off the media's radar was the defeat of Uma Bharati and Shibu Soren in Assembly elections, marking a 180 degree political turnaround for the two.

Uma Bharati, one of the darlings of the Hindutva movement that propelled the BJP onto centre stage, is perhaps best remembered for leading the BJP to a historic victory in the 2003 elections in Madhya Pradesh, crushing the incumbent Congress government led by Digvijay Singh. Yet the 'fiery sanyasin' as she came to be known, soon fell out with the BJP high command and formed her own party-the Bharatiya Janshakti Party, along with her trusted lieutenant, Prahlad Patel. There were many who felt that Bharati's absence from the BJP would weaken it considerably, especially as she was perhaps (along with Narendra Modi) the only leader of the generation that is to succeed that of Advani and Vajpayee, that had widespread popular support. Many also believed that the BJS would eat into the BJP's vote share and actually harm the prospects of the ruling party in the state elections that were concluded just over a month ago. What transpired in those elections was that not only was the BJS' influence negligible, but Bharati actually lost her own seat. It remains to be see whether she will honour her promise and retire to Kedarnath.

The case of Shibu Soren is even more interesting than that of Bharati. Soren has led the Jharkhand movement for years and it was felt that at least in Jharkhand, he was invincible. He used this perception to his advantage often, punching well above his weight in the Central Government. It was he who is said to have saved Narasimha Rao's government in the famous trust vote, he who wrangled the coal portfolio for himself in Manmohan Singh's government despite having only five MP's and he who supported the Nuclear Deal only when he was assured of the Jharkhand Chief Minister's Chair. Although Soren was notorious in Delhi for his wheeling and dealing, and was reviled by the English press for his role in the Chirudih massacre case, he remained a central figure in Jharkhand politics. Yet his election defeat, a few weeks ago, to a relatively unknown opponent, will bring his central position into question. While Shibu Soren is still called Guruji by his cadre, one surely must wonder how long he will be able to command respect, especially as he lost his election when he was running as a sitting Chief Minister.

What lessons do the defeats of Shibu Soren and Uma Bharati provide for us? Most obviously they show, if we didn't already know it, that the actions of the Indian voter should never be taken lightly, never be predicted with any level of confidence, never said to be understood. The defeats also draw attention to those politicians who have managed to survive the voter's wrath time and again-Kamal Nath, Sharad Pawar, Laloo Yadav spring to mind. True political muscle in India can only be judged by the number of times you survive the test of the voter. Both Soren and especially Bharati will have to work extremely hard to rebuild their status as political heavy weights and generate the respect they were once able to command.

What implications do the respective defeats have for the immediate political scene in the country? Uma Bharati's decline signals a political vacuum at least in the Bundelkhand region of Madhya Pradesh. This is a vacuum that Mayawati especially will be looking to explore, especially as she is strong in the corresponding region of Uttar Pradesh. Although Bharati's support came for the OBC's and Mayawati draws most of her support from SC's, I wouldn't put it past behanji to move into the open space here. If she wants to become a politician with nationwide appeal, she must win at least 5 seats outside UP in the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls. She will most definitely be eyeing the LS seats from Bundelkhand. Shibu Soren's defeat on the other hand does not mean that his party, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, is finished. I do believe they will play a strong role in Jharkhand politics. However I feel his loss will diminish his bargaining power in the centre, and will make him more susceptible to prosecution in a number of criminal cases that are filed against him. Indeed, if he is convicted, perhaps other politicians will look at the case of Shibu Soren and think twice before committing a criminal act, though this is probably wishful thinking.