Friday, January 16, 2009

Gujju Bhai?

In response to Keshava's post 'The Serpent's Kiss' (1/14/2009)

I am no fan of Narendra Modi. I am no fan of his politics, of his economics, of his cultural views. I feel it is a travesty that he has not been brought to book for his role, or lack thereof, in the riots of 2002. It worries me that people are looking to Modi for leadership, that people are pointing to him as a future Prime Minister. And the reason it worries me is that I feel the possibility of his becoming Prime Minister is not the wishful thinking of the middle class, or of Gujrat, or of our industrialists. I think it is a very real possibility. And here's why.

Keshava believes that '(Modi) would do well to ditch his corporate backers in favour of a less vocal but far more important person: the Indian voter'. He also believes that that 'his assertion of Gujrati identity (is) the single biggest factor contributing to his current success'. I disagree with both statements.

Narendra Modi became Chief Minister of Gujrat in 2001. He recently became the first CM of Gujrat to win a third successive term. He is also the longest serving CM of the state ever. His support comes not only from the business class, or the middle class or the cities, but also from the tribal belts of Eastern Gujrat, from the economically backward regions of Kutch. He has survived a large scale rebellion within his own party, survived a revitalised Sonia Gandhi in the 2007 election, survived the most important test of all-the test of the voter. Indeed he has not merely survived, not merely endured. He has triumphed. Modi does not need to ditch his corporate backers in favour of the voter because he is able to cultivate both of them, at the same time.

Narendra Modi has triumphed time and again in his home state not merely because he has appealed to the notion of a masculine sense of Gujrati pride. Sure he uses the Gujrat card often. But the use of this 'Gujrat card' cannot explain his consecutive victories in that state. Indeed if we were to follow the logic that playing the politics of regional pride wins you elections, then the Shiv Sena should defeat anti-incumbency in Maharashtra, the Akalis should do this in Punjab, the AGP in Assam, and so on. After all, these parties too campaign on a plank of a regional pride. But anti-incumbency has got the better of these parties time and again. There is obviously more to Narendra Modi than his Gujrati identity

I would argue that Modi has triumphed because he has made every test a referendum on himself-on his personality and his achievements. He has projected himself as a fiery speaker, as an incorruptible, decisive leader capable of taking risks and trusting in his own judgement. He has also been able to deliver on certain 'development' issues. Many bureaucrats working in 'Modi's Gujrat' feel that they can accomplish more there than in perhaps any other part of the country. The image that Modi has projected of himself has given rise to a personality cult-the cult of Moditva, as symbolised by the popularity of the Modi masks in the elections of 2007.

I have differentiated between Narendra Modi's Gujrati identity and his personality. There are many who would be unwilling to draw this distinction. However I turn again to the election of 2007 to point out that these differences do exist. In that election, we saw Sonia Gandhi and Digvijay Singh launching spirited attacks on Modi, calling him 'Merchant of Death' on the one hand, and accusing him of 'Hindu terrorism' on the other. Modi responded in a brilliant counter-attack, and made the entire election about himself. Sonia Gandhi was projected not as anti-Gujrat, but anti-Modi. Keshubhai Patel and other BJP rebels were attacked on a similar plank. The issue of Gujrat receded into the background and Moditva came to the fore.

The question is whether Narendra Modi's Gujrat model can be replicated in the rest of India. The answer to that question lies in what you feel is central to that model. If you feel that it is the usage of Gujrati identity, then the answer is no. If indeed Narendra Modi is no more than a glorified Raj Thackeray or Shibu Soren then he will remain a phenomenon inside Gujrat and perhaps in some other states like the Gujrati speaking areas of Maharashtra. But if you feel that the Gujrat model has at its core the Modi personality, as I do, then you must admit the potential for Modi to become a leader of considerable national standing. Pratap Bhanu Mehta identifies this in brilliant article written in the aftermath of Modi's last election victory in December 2007. Already Modi has drawn huge crowds at rallies in Mumbai and as far away as Chennai, and although I am not suggesting that the BJP is about to win many seats in Tamil Nadu, I do feel that the Modi factor will be an important part of the elections of 2009. Indeed, these elections offer a chance for Modi to actualise his considerable potential (apologies for the use of Aristotelian language).

Note: In his post, Keshava has consigned the TDP to the dustbin of history, along with the Swatantra Party. I am sure he has good reasons for doing so. However, while Swatantra is well and truly dead, I wouldn't be so sure to write off the TDP yet. The elections this summer may just signal a revival of fortunes for the beleaguered Chandrababu Naidu.

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