In response to Keshava's post 'School Textbooks: India's no-spin zone' (01/19/2009)
I could not agree more with Keshava when he criticizes the governments decision to set up the salwa judum movement and arm unemployed young men in an attempt to fight the naxalite threat. When any government, any where sets up vigilante groups to deal with security threats, it indulges in the ultimate abdication from responsibility. The people of naxalite affected districts defy boycott calls and an unimaginably high risk of violence to come out and vote not for a government that gives them arms and ammunition to fight their own battles, but one that can, among things, allow them to go into their fields without fear of being shot, allow their children to go to school without fear of being kidnapped. When a government decides to abdicate responsibility in this regard it is not just wrong, it is criminal.
What is tragic is that the Indian government is guilty of this sort of abdication not just in Chhatisgarh but in wide swathes of the country. In Kashmir the government armed those with any sort of grudge against the militants and made 'renegades' of them. Popularly known as Ikhwani's, these renegades were largely responsible for widespread human rights violations and for losing India's battle for the hearts and minds of thousands of Kashmiris. In large tracts of the cow belt, thugs like Raja Bhaiyya and Mohammad Shahbuddin controlled, till very recently, almost the entire administration. This was not because the government couldn't move in. It is because the government was quite happy letting other people do its job.
In some form or the other, all across India, authorities elected or appointed to perform a particular task simply don't do it. With elections coming up, those who lustily sing the Indian democracy's praises while ignoring its many flaws would do well to remember this fact.
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Suicide Watch
Much has been made of the BJP's organisational problems and the widespread prevalence of dissenting factions within their camp. But judging by this article, that appeared in the Times of India, it is the Congress and not the BJP that is bent upon committing political harakiri. With elections less than a 100 days away, the party has made clear its decision not to create a pre-poll alliance. The United Progressive Alliance will not contest elections as a united front at all, and while they may be some amount of seat adjustments by some members of the alliance, one can't help but feel that in an election that is tipped to be perhaps the closest in history, the Congress could lose out.
The Congress' decision seems to have been prompted by problems encountered in seat sharing talks with the SP, LJP and NCP. However their decision to contest the forthcoming elections alone is inexplicable, especially as they have seen how useful alliances are. In the previous Lok Sabha elections, a pre-poll alliance with the DPA in Tamil Nadu led the combination to win 40 out of 40 seats in that state. Moreover, the Congress has reaped the benefits of alliances by staying in power in the centre for 5 years with less than 145 seats of its own.
As already mentioned, these coming elections will, in all probability be exceptionally close. In many states, the fight will not be a two way tussle between the Congress and the BJP. In most large states, it will be a four or even five way tussle. For example in UP we have the SP and the BSP apart from the Congress and the BJP. In Maharashtra we have the NCP and Shiv Sena apart from the big two, not to mention the MNS. And these are just two examples-in fact in many states like Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, the BJP and the Congress are not big players at all. Whoever is going to win these elections will have to form smart alliances, will have to be willing to make compromises in the allocation of seats, will have to respect what Atal Behari Vajpayee once famously called the 'coalition dharma'.
These are not the years of IG or Rajiv Gandhi. The Congress will never form a majority on its own. Many pundits are predicting that the Congress may not even be able to win 140 seats, forget 272. The sooner Sonia Gandhi realises this, the better off the Congress will be. And if she does not realise this, the whole country should be on suicide watch as India's Grand Old Party tries, once again, to kill itself.
The Congress' decision seems to have been prompted by problems encountered in seat sharing talks with the SP, LJP and NCP. However their decision to contest the forthcoming elections alone is inexplicable, especially as they have seen how useful alliances are. In the previous Lok Sabha elections, a pre-poll alliance with the DPA in Tamil Nadu led the combination to win 40 out of 40 seats in that state. Moreover, the Congress has reaped the benefits of alliances by staying in power in the centre for 5 years with less than 145 seats of its own.
As already mentioned, these coming elections will, in all probability be exceptionally close. In many states, the fight will not be a two way tussle between the Congress and the BJP. In most large states, it will be a four or even five way tussle. For example in UP we have the SP and the BSP apart from the Congress and the BJP. In Maharashtra we have the NCP and Shiv Sena apart from the big two, not to mention the MNS. And these are just two examples-in fact in many states like Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, the BJP and the Congress are not big players at all. Whoever is going to win these elections will have to form smart alliances, will have to be willing to make compromises in the allocation of seats, will have to respect what Atal Behari Vajpayee once famously called the 'coalition dharma'.
These are not the years of IG or Rajiv Gandhi. The Congress will never form a majority on its own. Many pundits are predicting that the Congress may not even be able to win 140 seats, forget 272. The sooner Sonia Gandhi realises this, the better off the Congress will be. And if she does not realise this, the whole country should be on suicide watch as India's Grand Old Party tries, once again, to kill itself.
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Honey, just allow me one more chance
Nine years ago, as a nine-year old, I spent a week at the Chinnaswamy Stadium watching India pitifully capitulate to South Africa. It was the most depressing time in recent memory to be an Indian cricket fan- far, far more depressing than the brief post 2007 World Cup gloom. It wasn't the margin of the defeat so much as the manner that was mordant. Sachin Tendulkar and Rahul Dravid scratching painfully against that glorified net bowler Nicky Boje, Nikhil Chopra bowling 24 overs without once turning a ball or beating the bat, India taking 191.4 overs to dismiss South Africa..clearly, the inequality was not one of skill, but of desire. After having been hammered 3-0 by Australia, and throwing away the previous test at Mumbai, with Tendulkar a lame-duck having resigned the captaincy weeks earlier in semi-disgrace, India evidently had no motivation or desire. Anil Kumble, as always, refused to join in his teammates' apathy and soldiered away for six wickets, including the South African top five.
Things were hardly helped by appalling and one-sided umpiring in the form of Russell Tiffin, but that is no excuse for India scoring 158 and 250 on a flat pitch. But as a matter of fact, I remember that week for more than the pervading gloom. Throughout the test match, light and hope crept up occasionally like tiny miracles. One such light was the teenaged debutant Mohammad Kaif, who fielded like a dream and played some crisp strokes before being unjustly sent on his way back by Mr. Tiffin, out LBW despite an inside-edge you could make out in the stands. Another, of course, was the glorious final test hundred of that supreme artist, Mohammad Azharuddin. Azhar, now a Congress wannabe-politico, was playing his 99th Test, attempting to stage a comeback at the age of 37. Earlier in the match, he took his 25th career catch off Kumble's bowling; in the final innings, the result long ago decided, he showed up his younger teammates with a typical display of grace and aggression. Boje, who the other Indians were making to look a cross between Bapu Nadkarni and Johnny Wardle, was made to look like the gentle trundler he is when he bowled to Azhar. One month later, the match-fixing scandal broke; Azhar ended on 99 Tests, like Greg Chappell and Reg Duff with a hundred in his first and last Test, and received a life-ban.
Kaif never delivered on his batting promise, ending up as a good player but clearly short of the highest class. But I've omitted to mention the participant in that Test match that gave me the most joy. Murali Kartik was, at 24, an experienced first-class bowler, but he was in only his second Test. A traditionalist even at the age of nine, I had to marvel at his gifts. He had every conceivable asset that a left-armer can have: an easy, classical approach, wonderful control of loop and flight, a deadly arm ball, and a stock ball that turned sharply; perhaps not quite Bedi, but surely a talent in the Dilip Doshi ilk, and Doshi was a wonderful bowler. He bowled tirelessly on the most unhelpful of pitches, had multiple good appeals turned down and was not flattered by figures of 3 for 123. In the nine years following that day, little has changed in Kartik's game. If anything, his control has gotten even better, as he has displayed his effectiveness in both limited overs formats. But as far as Indian cricket is concerned, Murali Kartik is the man of no luck. Always poorly treated by Sourav Ganguly, his nadir came in Sydney on 6 Jan 2004 when Parthiv Patel missed a regulation stumping (Ricky Ponting, no less) off Kartik's bowling that ended up costing India a series win- and Kartik his place in the team. He returned to bowl India to a test win in Mumbai, and was dropped two games later. He fought his way back into the one-day side in 2007, bamboozling Australia once again with a magical 6 for 27- only to be dropped a month later. He was in the team for the home series against South Africa this year, only to pick up a freak injury at the last minute and be ignored when fit again- for Pragyan Ojha.
I have watched Pragyan Ojha bowl on several occasions; and not only is he no Murali Kartik- if it were not for a distinctly dodgy action that helps him get some turn, he would be firmly in the Nicky Boje class of left-armer. He has no flight, no guile, a defensive instinct. When I think of the fact that Goel and Shivalkar were not taken on foreign tours, and that Pragyan Ojha is..at a time of relative poverty for Indian spin bowling, with Chawla struggling and Mishra inconsistent, you might be fooled into thinking that India has no true partner for Harbhajan Singh. But now, as ever, that is false. Murali Kartik is a world-class talent who, on current form, would walk into any test side bar Sri Lanka. He should be taking wickets for India, not Middlesex, earning in a living in Tests, not county Twenty20s. Mr. Srikkanth, it's not too late to remedy the mistakes your predecessors made. 32 is not old for a spinner- Grimmett was a Test debutant at 33, as was the aforementioned Doshi, who went on to 100 plus Test wickets for India. Kartik can be just as effective filling in for Kumble as Doshi was succeeding Bedi. Give another chance to a man whose time has come.
Things were hardly helped by appalling and one-sided umpiring in the form of Russell Tiffin, but that is no excuse for India scoring 158 and 250 on a flat pitch. But as a matter of fact, I remember that week for more than the pervading gloom. Throughout the test match, light and hope crept up occasionally like tiny miracles. One such light was the teenaged debutant Mohammad Kaif, who fielded like a dream and played some crisp strokes before being unjustly sent on his way back by Mr. Tiffin, out LBW despite an inside-edge you could make out in the stands. Another, of course, was the glorious final test hundred of that supreme artist, Mohammad Azharuddin. Azhar, now a Congress wannabe-politico, was playing his 99th Test, attempting to stage a comeback at the age of 37. Earlier in the match, he took his 25th career catch off Kumble's bowling; in the final innings, the result long ago decided, he showed up his younger teammates with a typical display of grace and aggression. Boje, who the other Indians were making to look a cross between Bapu Nadkarni and Johnny Wardle, was made to look like the gentle trundler he is when he bowled to Azhar. One month later, the match-fixing scandal broke; Azhar ended on 99 Tests, like Greg Chappell and Reg Duff with a hundred in his first and last Test, and received a life-ban.
Kaif never delivered on his batting promise, ending up as a good player but clearly short of the highest class. But I've omitted to mention the participant in that Test match that gave me the most joy. Murali Kartik was, at 24, an experienced first-class bowler, but he was in only his second Test. A traditionalist even at the age of nine, I had to marvel at his gifts. He had every conceivable asset that a left-armer can have: an easy, classical approach, wonderful control of loop and flight, a deadly arm ball, and a stock ball that turned sharply; perhaps not quite Bedi, but surely a talent in the Dilip Doshi ilk, and Doshi was a wonderful bowler. He bowled tirelessly on the most unhelpful of pitches, had multiple good appeals turned down and was not flattered by figures of 3 for 123. In the nine years following that day, little has changed in Kartik's game. If anything, his control has gotten even better, as he has displayed his effectiveness in both limited overs formats. But as far as Indian cricket is concerned, Murali Kartik is the man of no luck. Always poorly treated by Sourav Ganguly, his nadir came in Sydney on 6 Jan 2004 when Parthiv Patel missed a regulation stumping (Ricky Ponting, no less) off Kartik's bowling that ended up costing India a series win- and Kartik his place in the team. He returned to bowl India to a test win in Mumbai, and was dropped two games later. He fought his way back into the one-day side in 2007, bamboozling Australia once again with a magical 6 for 27- only to be dropped a month later. He was in the team for the home series against South Africa this year, only to pick up a freak injury at the last minute and be ignored when fit again- for Pragyan Ojha.
I have watched Pragyan Ojha bowl on several occasions; and not only is he no Murali Kartik- if it were not for a distinctly dodgy action that helps him get some turn, he would be firmly in the Nicky Boje class of left-armer. He has no flight, no guile, a defensive instinct. When I think of the fact that Goel and Shivalkar were not taken on foreign tours, and that Pragyan Ojha is..at a time of relative poverty for Indian spin bowling, with Chawla struggling and Mishra inconsistent, you might be fooled into thinking that India has no true partner for Harbhajan Singh. But now, as ever, that is false. Murali Kartik is a world-class talent who, on current form, would walk into any test side bar Sri Lanka. He should be taking wickets for India, not Middlesex, earning in a living in Tests, not county Twenty20s. Mr. Srikkanth, it's not too late to remedy the mistakes your predecessors made. 32 is not old for a spinner- Grimmett was a Test debutant at 33, as was the aforementioned Doshi, who went on to 100 plus Test wickets for India. Kartik can be just as effective filling in for Kumble as Doshi was succeeding Bedi. Give another chance to a man whose time has come.
Monday, January 19, 2009
School textbooks: India's no-spin zone
Well, well. State governments meddling with school history and social science textbooks for political purposes is not a new thing. Every five years, when Kerala's Communist government is replaced with a Congress government or vice versa, textbooks are rewritten to include or remove references to the greatness of Lenin, Stalin and Namboodiripad. More recently, Narendra Modi's government in Gujarat had gone one step further by adding favourable references to Hitler and Mussolini in middle school history textbooks.
It's taken less than a decade's existence as a state of the Republic for Chattisgarh to join this odious club. Today's Indian Express reports that school textbooks have been rewritten to include praise of Salwa Judum. Many of our readers may not even know of the existence of Salwa Judum, a vigilante group created and armed by the government in response to India's greatest internal security threat: the Maoist Naxalites. The Naxalites have prospered in recent years, feeding off the government's apathy towards both rural development in general and the upliftment of the adivasis (tribals; a group much more oppressed and disenfranchised than even the Dalits) in particular. The Home Ministry estimates Naxalite influence in 10% of India's districts, and although this may be a slight exaggeration, this number is growing quickly. The Naxalites, brutal and violent as they are, offer a (admittedly false) hope to unemployed, disaffected young men and create an alternative infrastructure of health, education and employment in areas, especially in central India, where the government has never tried to provide these essential services.
There are two legitimate and essential ways to combat the Naxalite threat. One is through more efficient, fair and extensive policing. Police brutality and police apathy are equally unhelpful. Secondly, we need to aggressively address the deep-lying problems that have led to the Naxalite's success, by helping those Indians most ignored by our recent economic growth. By pandering to better-off farmers in certain states, the ruling UPA government has done next to nothing for the states most affected by Naxalites, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh.
Instead of these just and rational solutions, the government has responded to the Naxal threat in a profoundly counterproductive way- the creation of Salwa Judum. Those unemployed youths not with the Naxalites are armed, instead, by the government, and told to shoot Naxalites. There is a very real civil war going on in India's heartland, and in Chattisgarh, and in the beautiful, forested district of Chattisgarh in particular, the environment is one of kill or be killed. Salwa Judum has, belatedly, attracted the attention of intellectuals and the media and even the Supreme Court chastised the government for the illegal action of arming civilians. Far from moves to disband the group, however, the Chattisgarh government chooses to use the medium of school textbooks to brainwash public opinion into supporting Salwa Judum:
It's well and good for the Congress to criticize this action, when the Congress-led Central Government has consistently supported Salwa Judum, defending it in the Supreme Court and continuously attempting to present it as a legitimate means of resistance against Naxalites, when it is not only immoral and foolish but also unconstitutional. But with the attention of both policymakers and the media primarily elsewhere, the disbanding of Salwa Judum appears unlikely at best.
It's taken less than a decade's existence as a state of the Republic for Chattisgarh to join this odious club. Today's Indian Express reports that school textbooks have been rewritten to include praise of Salwa Judum. Many of our readers may not even know of the existence of Salwa Judum, a vigilante group created and armed by the government in response to India's greatest internal security threat: the Maoist Naxalites. The Naxalites have prospered in recent years, feeding off the government's apathy towards both rural development in general and the upliftment of the adivasis (tribals; a group much more oppressed and disenfranchised than even the Dalits) in particular. The Home Ministry estimates Naxalite influence in 10% of India's districts, and although this may be a slight exaggeration, this number is growing quickly. The Naxalites, brutal and violent as they are, offer a (admittedly false) hope to unemployed, disaffected young men and create an alternative infrastructure of health, education and employment in areas, especially in central India, where the government has never tried to provide these essential services.
There are two legitimate and essential ways to combat the Naxalite threat. One is through more efficient, fair and extensive policing. Police brutality and police apathy are equally unhelpful. Secondly, we need to aggressively address the deep-lying problems that have led to the Naxalite's success, by helping those Indians most ignored by our recent economic growth. By pandering to better-off farmers in certain states, the ruling UPA government has done next to nothing for the states most affected by Naxalites, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh.
Instead of these just and rational solutions, the government has responded to the Naxal threat in a profoundly counterproductive way- the creation of Salwa Judum. Those unemployed youths not with the Naxalites are armed, instead, by the government, and told to shoot Naxalites. There is a very real civil war going on in India's heartland, and in Chattisgarh, and in the beautiful, forested district of Chattisgarh in particular, the environment is one of kill or be killed. Salwa Judum has, belatedly, attracted the attention of intellectuals and the media and even the Supreme Court chastised the government for the illegal action of arming civilians. Far from moves to disband the group, however, the Chattisgarh government chooses to use the medium of school textbooks to brainwash public opinion into supporting Salwa Judum:
The controversial Salwa Judum movement has now been incorporated in the Chhattisgarh school curriculum with a chapter on "Necessity of social security from problem of Naxalism" being included in the social science text book of class X of the Chhattisgarh Board of Secondary Education. Describing the movement as a peace march', the two page chapter throws light on the anti-Naxal movement of Bastar and its objectives, causes for the spread of Naxalism, initiatives being taken by the government to deal with the situation and the possible steps required to find a permanent solution to the problem. "Naxalism is an ideology that aims at capturing political power. The most sensitive situation is prevailing in Bastar area as the Naxalites feel safe there because of the inaccessible terrain, located very far away from the state capital. The region remains backward and anyone could easily influence the gullible and peace-loving locals", the chapter points out.
It goes on to say that the Naxal presence in Bastar can be primarily attributed to the slow pace of development, the language problem and the forest terrain that prevents security forces from carrying out an aerial attack and facilitates the military and guerilla training of the Naxal recruits. "Now tribals have become aware and they have stood up against Naxalism. People are getting themselves associated with Salwa Judum, " says the text book. "Nearly 70,000 people , affected by the problem of Naxalism, have taken shelter in the relief camps where the state government has been providing them with all necessary basic amenities. Non-government organisations are also associated for educational development of these people", it said. " Naxalism can be solved through wisdom, sensitivity and mutual understanding and it requires awareness and peoples' participation," it said. The chapter, which did not mention the name of its author, refers to attempts like the first ever revenue survey of Abujmarh", a remote forest area, other welfare schemes, modernisation of police force and development of infrastructure in the region. The Opposition Congress and CPI, meanwhile, criticised inclusion of issues pertaining to a controversial subject like Salwa Judum in the school curriculum.
It's well and good for the Congress to criticize this action, when the Congress-led Central Government has consistently supported Salwa Judum, defending it in the Supreme Court and continuously attempting to present it as a legitimate means of resistance against Naxalites, when it is not only immoral and foolish but also unconstitutional. But with the attention of both policymakers and the media primarily elsewhere, the disbanding of Salwa Judum appears unlikely at best.
Dirty little fingers
When the Satyam scandal broke, almost the first question on everyone's lips was- did B Ramalinga Raju have a political patron that helped him conceal his fraud and deception? While everyone, including the media, is still struggling to find out the exact nature of the fraud itself- did Satyam falsify its accounts, as originally claimed, or was Raju embezzling huge sums of money (both versions of the story are going the rounds, based on the premise that a 3% profit margin is absurdly low for a large Indian IT firm)- Sugata Srinivasaraju, Outlook's Bangalore correspondent, probes the available evidence to decisively link the government of Andhra Pradesh CM, the notorious YS Rajashekhara Reddy, with Raju. After the issue came out, it has come to light that YSR had authorized a 50 acre IT SEZ to be developed by Raju, evidence that makes Srinivasaraju's case far more damning.
I'd always known of YSR Reddy as a ruthless, even hooliganistic politician whose determined efforts to destroy the rival Telugu Desam Party through violence and intimidation (coupled with unfailing populism, such as free electricity for farmers) had led to the open defection of most of Chandrababu Naidu's MPs and, seemingly, the end of the TDP as a meaningful political force. Telugu film superstar Chiranjeevi attempted to fill the vacuum by launching his own political party, Praja Rajyam. Ironically, Chandrababu Naidu, whose media success owed everything to his use of the "CEO" moniker and his famed affinity for IT moguls like, ahem, Ramalinga Raju, is now trying to stage a political comeback by accusing YSR Reddy, usually considered the CM of the farmer rather than the industrialist, of having had several fingers in the dirty Satyam pie. I still believe that for Naidu to successfully return to power, he will have to join with Chiranjeevi and re-establish his lost base- in short, do the near-impossible. But in a crazy decade where a man earning 12,000 dollars a year can get a 720,000 dollar home loan, where an Arab sheikh offers to pay 250 million pounds in transfer fees and wages for a football player, where Satyam, a company that's name means "truth", can for years, even decades, maintain the most bizarre concealments- is anything impossible?
I'd always known of YSR Reddy as a ruthless, even hooliganistic politician whose determined efforts to destroy the rival Telugu Desam Party through violence and intimidation (coupled with unfailing populism, such as free electricity for farmers) had led to the open defection of most of Chandrababu Naidu's MPs and, seemingly, the end of the TDP as a meaningful political force. Telugu film superstar Chiranjeevi attempted to fill the vacuum by launching his own political party, Praja Rajyam. Ironically, Chandrababu Naidu, whose media success owed everything to his use of the "CEO" moniker and his famed affinity for IT moguls like, ahem, Ramalinga Raju, is now trying to stage a political comeback by accusing YSR Reddy, usually considered the CM of the farmer rather than the industrialist, of having had several fingers in the dirty Satyam pie. I still believe that for Naidu to successfully return to power, he will have to join with Chiranjeevi and re-establish his lost base- in short, do the near-impossible. But in a crazy decade where a man earning 12,000 dollars a year can get a 720,000 dollar home loan, where an Arab sheikh offers to pay 250 million pounds in transfer fees and wages for a football player, where Satyam, a company that's name means "truth", can for years, even decades, maintain the most bizarre concealments- is anything impossible?
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Falling by the Wayside
With the Mumbai attacks and its prolonged aftermath dominating newspaper space, scant attention has been paid to other relatively major developments in the Indian political sphere. VP Singh died, Vasundhara Raje's attempt at a replication of the Modi style personality politics in her state of Rajasthan was shown to be a failure, and Sheila Dikshit swept into an unprecedented third term in office. However what really fell off the media's radar was the defeat of Uma Bharati and Shibu Soren in Assembly elections, marking a 180 degree political turnaround for the two.
Uma Bharati, one of the darlings of the Hindutva movement that propelled the BJP onto centre stage, is perhaps best remembered for leading the BJP to a historic victory in the 2003 elections in Madhya Pradesh, crushing the incumbent Congress government led by Digvijay Singh. Yet the 'fiery sanyasin' as she came to be known, soon fell out with the BJP high command and formed her own party-the Bharatiya Janshakti Party, along with her trusted lieutenant, Prahlad Patel. There were many who felt that Bharati's absence from the BJP would weaken it considerably, especially as she was perhaps (along with Narendra Modi) the only leader of the generation that is to succeed that of Advani and Vajpayee, that had widespread popular support. Many also believed that the BJS would eat into the BJP's vote share and actually harm the prospects of the ruling party in the state elections that were concluded just over a month ago. What transpired in those elections was that not only was the BJS' influence negligible, but Bharati actually lost her own seat. It remains to be see whether she will honour her promise and retire to Kedarnath.
The case of Shibu Soren is even more interesting than that of Bharati. Soren has led the Jharkhand movement for years and it was felt that at least in Jharkhand, he was invincible. He used this perception to his advantage often, punching well above his weight in the Central Government. It was he who is said to have saved Narasimha Rao's government in the famous trust vote, he who wrangled the coal portfolio for himself in Manmohan Singh's government despite having only five MP's and he who supported the Nuclear Deal only when he was assured of the Jharkhand Chief Minister's Chair. Although Soren was notorious in Delhi for his wheeling and dealing, and was reviled by the English press for his role in the Chirudih massacre case, he remained a central figure in Jharkhand politics. Yet his election defeat, a few weeks ago, to a relatively unknown opponent, will bring his central position into question. While Shibu Soren is still called Guruji by his cadre, one surely must wonder how long he will be able to command respect, especially as he lost his election when he was running as a sitting Chief Minister.
What lessons do the defeats of Shibu Soren and Uma Bharati provide for us? Most obviously they show, if we didn't already know it, that the actions of the Indian voter should never be taken lightly, never be predicted with any level of confidence, never said to be understood. The defeats also draw attention to those politicians who have managed to survive the voter's wrath time and again-Kamal Nath, Sharad Pawar, Laloo Yadav spring to mind. True political muscle in India can only be judged by the number of times you survive the test of the voter. Both Soren and especially Bharati will have to work extremely hard to rebuild their status as political heavy weights and generate the respect they were once able to command.
What implications do the respective defeats have for the immediate political scene in the country? Uma Bharati's decline signals a political vacuum at least in the Bundelkhand region of Madhya Pradesh. This is a vacuum that Mayawati especially will be looking to explore, especially as she is strong in the corresponding region of Uttar Pradesh. Although Bharati's support came for the OBC's and Mayawati draws most of her support from SC's, I wouldn't put it past behanji to move into the open space here. If she wants to become a politician with nationwide appeal, she must win at least 5 seats outside UP in the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls. She will most definitely be eyeing the LS seats from Bundelkhand. Shibu Soren's defeat on the other hand does not mean that his party, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, is finished. I do believe they will play a strong role in Jharkhand politics. However I feel his loss will diminish his bargaining power in the centre, and will make him more susceptible to prosecution in a number of criminal cases that are filed against him. Indeed, if he is convicted, perhaps other politicians will look at the case of Shibu Soren and think twice before committing a criminal act, though this is probably wishful thinking.
Uma Bharati, one of the darlings of the Hindutva movement that propelled the BJP onto centre stage, is perhaps best remembered for leading the BJP to a historic victory in the 2003 elections in Madhya Pradesh, crushing the incumbent Congress government led by Digvijay Singh. Yet the 'fiery sanyasin' as she came to be known, soon fell out with the BJP high command and formed her own party-the Bharatiya Janshakti Party, along with her trusted lieutenant, Prahlad Patel. There were many who felt that Bharati's absence from the BJP would weaken it considerably, especially as she was perhaps (along with Narendra Modi) the only leader of the generation that is to succeed that of Advani and Vajpayee, that had widespread popular support. Many also believed that the BJS would eat into the BJP's vote share and actually harm the prospects of the ruling party in the state elections that were concluded just over a month ago. What transpired in those elections was that not only was the BJS' influence negligible, but Bharati actually lost her own seat. It remains to be see whether she will honour her promise and retire to Kedarnath.
The case of Shibu Soren is even more interesting than that of Bharati. Soren has led the Jharkhand movement for years and it was felt that at least in Jharkhand, he was invincible. He used this perception to his advantage often, punching well above his weight in the Central Government. It was he who is said to have saved Narasimha Rao's government in the famous trust vote, he who wrangled the coal portfolio for himself in Manmohan Singh's government despite having only five MP's and he who supported the Nuclear Deal only when he was assured of the Jharkhand Chief Minister's Chair. Although Soren was notorious in Delhi for his wheeling and dealing, and was reviled by the English press for his role in the Chirudih massacre case, he remained a central figure in Jharkhand politics. Yet his election defeat, a few weeks ago, to a relatively unknown opponent, will bring his central position into question. While Shibu Soren is still called Guruji by his cadre, one surely must wonder how long he will be able to command respect, especially as he lost his election when he was running as a sitting Chief Minister.
What lessons do the defeats of Shibu Soren and Uma Bharati provide for us? Most obviously they show, if we didn't already know it, that the actions of the Indian voter should never be taken lightly, never be predicted with any level of confidence, never said to be understood. The defeats also draw attention to those politicians who have managed to survive the voter's wrath time and again-Kamal Nath, Sharad Pawar, Laloo Yadav spring to mind. True political muscle in India can only be judged by the number of times you survive the test of the voter. Both Soren and especially Bharati will have to work extremely hard to rebuild their status as political heavy weights and generate the respect they were once able to command.
What implications do the respective defeats have for the immediate political scene in the country? Uma Bharati's decline signals a political vacuum at least in the Bundelkhand region of Madhya Pradesh. This is a vacuum that Mayawati especially will be looking to explore, especially as she is strong in the corresponding region of Uttar Pradesh. Although Bharati's support came for the OBC's and Mayawati draws most of her support from SC's, I wouldn't put it past behanji to move into the open space here. If she wants to become a politician with nationwide appeal, she must win at least 5 seats outside UP in the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls. She will most definitely be eyeing the LS seats from Bundelkhand. Shibu Soren's defeat on the other hand does not mean that his party, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, is finished. I do believe they will play a strong role in Jharkhand politics. However I feel his loss will diminish his bargaining power in the centre, and will make him more susceptible to prosecution in a number of criminal cases that are filed against him. Indeed, if he is convicted, perhaps other politicians will look at the case of Shibu Soren and think twice before committing a criminal act, though this is probably wishful thinking.
About time
It looks like the day when long-overdue international developments finally transpire. Just as Israel prepares to announce a ceasefire in Gaza, Pakistan has finally admitted that India provided it with proof of some Pakistani involvement in the Mumbai terror attacks (The Hindu). I wonder if the mild pressure put on Pakistan by David Milliband had any effect. The Pakistani Interior Minister, Rahman Malik, announced that an internal probe would be launched and the process taken forward through the judiciary. He declined to set a timeframe.
It's too early for any reactions from the Indian side or word on what's next, but I'll be updating regularly as those reactions come in.
It's too early for any reactions from the Indian side or word on what's next, but I'll be updating regularly as those reactions come in.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)